The National Statistical Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released its Provisional Estimates (PE) for the Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Quarterly GDP growth for the fourth quarter (January-March) of FY 2023-24. The report provides a detailed breakdown of GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rates, expenditure components, and sectoral contributions at both constant (2011-12) and current prices.
Key Highlights of GDP Growth
The real GDP is estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24, up from 7.0% in FY 2022-23. Nominal GDP shows a growth rate of 9.6% compared to 14.2% in the previous fiscal year. As far as the Real GVA growth is concerned, the report indicates that it has grown by 7.2% in FY 2023-24, compared to 6.7% in FY 2022-23. Significant growth was observed in the Manufacturing sector (9.9%) and Mining & Quarrying sector (7.1%). In Q4 of FY 2023-24, real GDP and GVA grew by 7.8% and 6.3%, respectively. Nominal GDP and GVA for the same period showed growth rates of 9.9% and 8.0%.
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Detailed annual estimates and sectoral analysis of GDP growth indicates the following:
- Real GDP growth is estimated at Rs 173.82 lakh crore for FY 2023-24, up from Rs 160.71 lakh crore in FY 2022-23, marking an 8.2% growth.
- Nominal GDP is projected to reach Rs 295.36 lakh crore, up 9.6% from Rs 269.50 lakh crore in FY 2022-23.
- Real GVA is estimated at Rs 158.74 lakh crore, a 7.2% increase from Rs 148.05 lakh crore in FY 2022-23.
- Nominal GVA is estimated at Rs 267.62 lakh crore, an 8.5% growth from Rs 246.59 lakh crore in FY 2022-23.
Sectoral Growth Analysis
- Primary Sector (Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing, Mining & Quarrying):
- Real GVA grew by 2.1% in FY 2023-24.
- Agriculture and allied activities grew by 1.4%, while Mining & Quarrying showed a robust 7.1% growth.
- Secondary Sector (Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Construction):
- Real GVA increased by 9.7%, with the Manufacturing sector witnessing a significant turnaround with a 9.9% growth after a contraction of 2.2% in the previous year.
- The Construction sector also showed strong performance, growing by 9.9%.
- Tertiary Sector (Services):
- Real GVA grew by 7.6%, driven by Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication, and Broadcasting services, which grew by 6.4%.
- Financial, Real Estate, and Professional Services grew by 8.4%, while Public Administration, Defence & Other Services grew by 7.8%.
Quarterly Estimates
- Q4 real GDP estimated at Rs 47.24 lakh crore, marking a 7.8% growth from Rs 43.84 lakh crore in Q4 FY 2022-23.
- Q4 nominal GDP estimated at Rs 78.28 lakh crore, showing a 9.9% growth from Rs 71.23 lakh crore in Q4 FY 2022-23.
- Q4 real GVA estimated at Rs 42.23 lakh crore, up by 6.3% from Rs 39.74 lakh crore in Q4 FY 2022-23.
- Q4 nominal GVA estimated at Rs 70.97 lakh crore, an 8.0% growth from Rs 65.74 lakh crore in Q4 FY 2022-23.
Methodology and Data Sources
The estimates are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method, incorporating data from various sources including the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), financial performance of listed companies, crop production estimates, livestock product outputs, fish production, cement and steel consumption, transportation metrics, and banking data.
The NSO’s provisional estimates highlight robust economic growth in FY 2023-24, with significant contributions from the manufacturing and mining sectors. While the growth in nominal terms has moderated compared to the previous year, the real GDP and GVA figures suggest a healthy expansion driven by strong performances across multiple sectors. The detailed sectoral and expenditure analyses provide a comprehensive view of the economic dynamics at play, offering valuable insights for policymakers and analysts alike.
The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for Q1 of FY 2024-25 is scheduled for August 30, 2024. These estimates will incorporate further revisions and updated data, offering continued insights into the trajectory of India’s economic growth.
