In an era where climate change is increasingly wreaking havoc across the globe, Geographic Information System (GIS technology) is emerging as a crucial tool for disaster prediction and mitigation. IPE Global and Esri India recently released a study, which revealed that climate change is making climate events disastrous. The study highlighted that 85 percent of Indian districts are prone to flood, drought, cyclone and heat waves, of which 45 percent of them are witnessing a swapping trend. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these climate extremes have also risen in recent decades by four-fold. Using a pentad-decadal analysis, the study compiles a catalogue of extreme climate events over a 50-year historical period from 1973 to 2023 by employing spatial and temporal modelling, the research provides a detailed district-level assessment, exploring the complexities and non-linear trends and patterns of these events.
Last decade alone has witnessed a five-fold increase in these climate extremes. The study also found that over all climate risk landscape of the Indian districts is fast changing. The study was launched at Climate Technology Summit’s plenary session titled “Leveraging GIS Technology to Mitigate Climate Risks” organised by Esri-India and its partner IPE Global.
Challenges in Predicting Natural Calamities
Along the sidelines of the Esri User Conference in New Delhi, when Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, was asked if GIS Technology was capable of predicting events like the Wayanad Slide, he acknowledged the complexity: “There are agencies with models to predict these events, but it’s still a forecast, not a guarantee. The challenge lies in forecasting with certainty, as the likelihood of an event happening doesn’t always translate into a precise outcome.”
Kumar highlighted that mitigating the effects of climate disasters requires both long-term and short-term strategies. In the long run, urban planning must account for traditional water flow areas and avoid building communities in regions prone to flooding, as seen in Chennai and Bangalore. “You can’t change how the earth functions. If water bodies once existed there, floods will naturally occur, and people will suffer.”
Short-term solutions, on the other hand, involve diverting water flow and building stronger infrastructure. For communities already settled in vulnerable areas, measures like enhanced drainage systems can prevent devastating impacts. Kumar also pointed out the effectiveness of early warning systems, particularly for cyclones and landslides, allowing for timely evacuation and preparation.
GIS Technology and Its Role in Reducing Cyclone Fatalities
GIS technology has been instrumental in reducing the human toll of cyclones. In the past, cyclones could result in thousands of deaths, but with GIS-driven models, the government can now predict the likely path and intensity of a cyclone, enabling mass evacuations from coastal areas. As Kumar explained, “Twenty years ago, a cyclone could claim 10,000 to 20,000 lives, but now, thanks to early warnings and improved infrastructure, the numbers have dropped drastically.”
He highlighted the multi-step process governments have adopted using GIS technology. First, people are evacuated to higher ground or specially constructed cyclone shelters. Second, arrangements are made for food and water to support them while they wait out the storm. And third, efforts are made to restore electricity and communication as quickly as possible to allow evacuees to return to a functioning home.
Kumar also stressed that disaster preparedness extends beyond immediate responses. Governments are now focused on creating resilient infrastructure, particularly in coastal areas. “We can’t move everyone away from the coast permanently, but we can ensure that homes are built to withstand future cyclones, and we can restore essential services like electricity and communication rapidly,” he said.
Establishment of Climate Risk Observatories (CROs)
Esri India and IPE Global also announced the establishment of Climate Risk Observatories (CROs) that would identify, assess, and project chronic and acute risks at a hyper-granular level to better prepare against climate extremities, biodiversity collapse, and ecosystem collapse. Abinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global, speaking about the tool, said: “All the projections from the IMD and federal agencies focus primarily on short-term forecasting. What we are aiming for with our tool is preparedness over slightly longer timeframes, specifically at 5 and 10-year intervals. The goal is to identify trends, understand them, and develop strategies accordingly. This tool is designed not to foster fear or paint a gloomy picture, but to equip decision-makers and the public with the information necessary for preparedness. Up until now, climate models—particularly global models—have focused on the scenarios of 2050 or 2100. However, what we are presenting in this tool addresses more immediate concerns.”
He further added that one area where development is still needed includes forecasting for landslides, sinkholes, and even slow-onset events like heatwaves. “Currently, heatwaves are measured solely based on temperature, but what this tool does is incorporate humidity levels. By factoring in thermal comfort, it also considers external conditions like the type of house you live in, the kind of vehicle you drive, and even the location you’re staying in. In regions like Mumbai, where thermal discomfort is prevalent, we are integrating these aspects into our model,” he said.
For several people, dealing with heat could be manageable due to air conditioning. But for others, such as domestic workers who spend hours outdoors, their exposure is significantly higher. When the outside temperature is 45 degrees Celsius, these individuals might be exposed to temperatures as high as 50 or 52 degrees, Mohanty said while adding that the tool accounts for these factors, along with the increased risk of vector-borne diseases, which they have now incorporated at the state level. “For instance, we’re tracking the rise in malaria cases, Japanese encephalitis, and yellow fever to provide early warnings and help address these public health emergencies,” he added.
Mohanty commented that the tool was a work in progress with the beta version being released at present. “Soon, for instance, if the IMD issues a rainfall alert for 2mm, this tool will help you decide whether to drive your car, and if you do, it will predict whether your bonnet or tires will be inundated. It will also guide whether you should carry an umbrella or simply work from home to avoid getting stuck in traffic. Our aim is to democratize climate data, making it more accessible and relevant to everyday people, while enabling public policymakers to make informed investments. The tool is centered on practical usage rather than theoretical data, helping put resources where they’re most needed,” he stated.
